Market Conditions Update: Steel & Aluminum Outlook Entering Q1 2026

As we head into the first quarter of 2026, the metal roofing market is experiencing renewed cost pressures across both steel and aluminum. Recent updates from the supply side point to higher pricing, longer lead times, and continued volatility tied to production constraints and market structure. Below is a summary of what contractors, fabricators, and project managers should know as they plan for the next 90–180 days.

Steel Market: Prices Moving Up, Lead Times Stretching
Steel pricing is trending upward going into Q1 2026. Several factors are contributing to this movement, including scheduled mill maintenance downtime, industry consolidation impacts related to Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel, and rising coating and paint “extras.” These extras, which are often less visible than base price changes, continue to add meaningful cost to finished steel products.
As mills reduce output during maintenance and inventories are replenished, lead times are beginning to extend. This tightening of supply is expected to persist in the near term, with pricing pressure likely to remain in place through at least the next 90–180 days.

Aluminum Market: Premiums Driving Costs More Than Base Metal
On the aluminum side, pricing dynamics are being driven less by the London Metal Exchange (LME) and more by the Midwest Premium. Over the past year, Midwest Premiums have increased dramatically, reflecting tariffs, limited domestic capacity, and a heavy reliance on U.S.-based aluminum production.

Currently, the U.S. aluminum market is largely dependent on domestic supply, with import options constrained. Looking ahead to 2026, there is potential for increased aluminum imports if trade conditions and tariffs shift, which could help relieve some pressure—but that relief is not yet guaranteed.

Paint Lines & Coatings: Continued Cost Pressure

Paint line availability and coating costs remain an ongoing concern. Limited capacity and higher input costs are keeping pressure on painted steel and aluminum products. These conditions reinforce the importance of proactive quoting and communication with customers.

What This Means for Contractors
In a market where pricing can change quickly, protecting your margins is critical. We strongly encourage contractors to:

• Use **price escalation clauses** on longer-term quotes
• Keep bid timelines as tight as possible
• Communicate early and clearly with building owners and homeowners about market-driven increases
  In many cases, modest price adjustments can be passed along successfully when they are explained in the context of broader market conditions.

Our Commitment
At Tri County Metals, we are committed to keeping our customers informed and supported as market conditions evolve. Our team is closely monitoring steel and aluminum pricing, lead times, and coating availability, and we are here to help you navigate quoting, sourcing, and project planning with confidence.

If you have questions about current pricing, lead times, or how to structure bids in today’s market, please reach out to your Tri County Metals’ Business Development Manager.